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2017-12-05

Implementing Strategy: The Seemingly Intractable North Korean Challenge

By: Dr. John R.Ballard

Former Dean of the National Defense College

Implementing strategies for international solutions is invariably complex – sometimes it even seems impossible. Even when all national goals are clear, the ability to coordinate multinational efforts to gain success at the strategic level remains a challenging task for leaders. The actions taken in response to recent North Korean missile developments can provide useful lessons for strategists, even when facing seemingly intractable problems.

Over the past year North Korea has conducted tests demonstrating its capability to launch ballistic missiles. These actions demonstrated that North Korea’s systems were developing faster than had been assessed. Such actions, coupled with regular U.S.–South Korea military exercises, threats by the new American President, and the volatile personality of North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un, all raised tensions in the region to unsustainable levels.

On July 4, North Korea conducted a missile test into the nearby Sea of Japan. On August 29, it launched another missile over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. On September 3, the U.S. reported an earthquake near North Korea’s nuclear test site, which North Korea later claimed was a hydrogen bomb capable of being mounted on a missile.

Then, on September 15, another missile was fired over Japan, traveling the furthest to date. In response, on September 18, President Trump and Chinese President Xi committed to “maximizing pressure on North Korea through vigorous enforcement” of UN Security Council resolutions; North Korea said those sanctions would only accelerate its nuclear program.

A Korean War armistice has existed since 1953; the North Korean regime controls all domestic information; Seoul’s 9.9 million inhabitants are extremely close to the potential conflict zone; and, neither UN sanctions nor Chinese leverage have contained North Korea’s weapons development to date.

The United States has deployed THAAD in South Korea and has 30,000 troops and three aircraft carriers in the area. Economic power has had little effect on the regime and has hurt the North Korean people, and military power only seems to escalate the crisis. Informational influence and financial constraints on North Korea have also had minimal effect. Diplomacy seems the best answer, but has only worked in North Korea’s favor in the past.

Everyone wants peace. South Korea is a friend and any crisis in that region will affect the UAE economy and pose risks elsewhere. Any conflict would be disastrous, and could bring about a global recession, so other viable options are required. North Korean regime change is impractical without a better successor, so new ideas are needed.

Creative UN-led dissuasion must occur; the UAE, India, the EU and/or other concerned states could cooperate to bring more positive UN action in Korea, avoiding war. Charismatic international leadership could be influential through mediation, where both sides should retain pride and benefit from stability. Managing international crises can be challenging but can also increase the influence of the UAE when our nation does act in its national interests. Determining what is worthwhile in such crises remains an important skill for all strategic leaders, but persistence is also required.

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