News

2023-04-01

Lessons from the War in Ukraine: Alliances

By:Dr. John R. Ballard,

Former Dean of the National Defense College

The ongoing conflict between Russia and the Ukraine has already produced several valuable lessons for strategists. One of the clearest early lessons reinforces the importance and impact of alliances.

Most commonly, an alliance is a formal relationship among states that have agreed to work together for a shared benefit or to achieve some common purpose. Alliances form in many settings, including politics, the military and business, but in every case, they arise seeking strategic benefit. A formal military alliance is not required for being perceived as an ally, co-belligerence, simply fighting alongside someone, is enough, but alliances offer greater potential power.

But alliances also require regular maintenance and continual steering effort to remain effective.

The impact of alliances can be significant. Several studies find that defensive alliances can deter conflict. Other alliances are simply about increasing power; still others offer leverage by bringing land and maritime nations together around a foe. Alliances can also be entangling, actually causing conflict, a story told in the Peloponnesian War. The essential elements of strong alliances are commitment, transparency, and resolve to act together.

The Allied Powers in World War I included the United Kingdom, France, the Russian Empire, Belgium, and the United States. The Russian Empire withdrew from the alliance before the end of the war due to its 1914 revolution, which led to the creation of the Soviet Union. Those same powers (by then Russia had become the Soviet Union) again formed an alliance against Germany in World War II. At the end of that war the Soviet Union and the United States remained allies but grew to ideologically oppose one another.

Then during the Cold War era, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formed by the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and the United States as a political and military alliance that promoted anti-communist values, focused against any expansion of the Soviet Union into Western Europe. When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1989, Russia continued to press against the eastern flank of Europe and in 2014 it attacked Ukraine over the Crimean Peninsula; the current war is an extension of that conflict, which some see as President Putin’s effort to restore the territory of the former Soviet Union.

In some ways the current conflict began over alliances, since Russia invaded in part because it felt threatened that the Ukraine might join NATO. Unfortunately for Russia, as the war developed, Russia’s actions actually strengthened the alliance because two other European nations, Finland and Sweden, applied to join NATO in reaction to the war, and Hungary is pressing to do so as well.

There is no doubt that the NATO Alliance has helped ensure the survival of Ukraine, even though Ukraine is not a NATO member. After a year of fighting, Russia has failed to win, and as NATO increases its arms contributions to Ukraine, the key to peace remains judging the tipping point when a strengthened Ukraine poses a greater threat to Russia than does continuing the conflict.

Alliances then can bring benefits and risks. Nations such as the UAE can gain advantage by maintaining useful alliances, such as its membership in the GCC, but can also retain independence of action by standing apart from alliances. Both are significant strategic decision.

Comments () Views (4326 ) Print

Send To Friend