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2017-10-05

National Shaping Actions: Using Strategic Reassurance and Dissuasion

By: Dr. John R.Ballard

Former Dean of the National Defense College

Focusing national power is a complex task, particularly when the objective is designed to influence another nation or its leadership; using force is actually easier than seeking to influence. Today we face multiple challenges in Yemen, Qatar, Iraq and Syria and unrest in other parts of the region; solutions to many of these challenges will require leaders to employ national tools to reassure friends and dissuade opponents and neutrals against taking harmful actions at the strategic level. Reassurance and dissuasion are often more useful, yet more difficult to employ than deterrence on the world scene.

As discussed previously, reassurance is designed to persuade friendly states, one’s own people, and those of one’s allies, that the benefits of a particular approach outweigh the costs, whereas dissuasion seeks to convince potential adversaries not to choose an undesirable path. Reassurance and dissuasion are both intended to influence the decisions of others, usually without the use of force, but some use of force could accompany both. Dissuasion is particularly difficult because leaders must find the right balance between being too assertive and not making their message clear.

Today the United States is reassuring both South Korea and Japan as North Korea expands its missile program; the US is also dissuading North Korea from using its capabilities against other states. Another prime example of dissuasion is the US effort to convince China not to act aggressively in the western Pacific. Examples of effective reassurance in the region include GCC conferences where leaders work together to speak with one voice as a common front against Iran; publicly confirming support for the actions of allies and friendly states, such as Saudi Arabia in Yemen; and providing investments and aid to states we seek to strengthen bonds with, such as Egypt. Regional examples of dissuasion include the GCC’s statements against new Iranian provocations and the UAE’s excellent public statements against violent extremists. These are difficult concepts: the 1990 Gulf conflict shows a failure to dissuade Iraq from attacking Kuwait, and the 2003 Gulf conflict shows a US failure to reassure its friends and allies.

Clarity and credibility of messages in the mind of the leader are essential to the effective use of strategic reassurance and dissuasion. As with deterrence, sending public signals designed to reassure or dissuade one state could be misinterpreted by other states, so great care needs to be taken to ensure every message is transmitted and interpreted accurately, by each state, particularly in our region. Our Ambassadors overseas play an essential role in ensuring messages are accurately understood. Although crafting such messages is challenging, over the long term, the effective use of reassurance and dissuasion will reinforce stability and minimize risk.

With the conflict in Yemen ongoing and coalition operations likely elsewhere, the UAE faces multiple potential crises that might pull our national effort in different directions, so focusing our national reassurance and dissuasion efforts on enduring national objectives deserve our very best efforts. Effectively employing reassurance and dissuasion will help reduce tensions and are the best ways to maintain regional stability. Effectively developing coherent reassurance and dissuasion efforts requires extreme good judgment, deep understanding of the issues and familiarity with the perspectives of other states, but doing so wisely will ensure UAE security, with minimal cost, as the nation prospers in an uncertain world.

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