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2017-07-02

Strategic Challenges: Maintaining Alliances

By: Dr. John R.Ballard

Former Dean of the National Defense College

Effective execution of national strategies requires adaptability and an appreciation of regional dynamics. Today our region faces strategic challenges in multiple countries, and even when the national goals are clear, the ability to focus multinational efforts at the strategic level remains a challenge. The recent crisis with Qatar is an instructive example of the challenge of maintaining effective alliances.

Historically, alliances have been designed to advance individual national interests and provide for coordinated response if any member became threatened; each state seeks to better protect themselves against threats from more powerful global actors by working as a group.

Still, the value of alliances, including their adaptability and cohesiveness, is hotly debated because states give up some sovereignty as well. The Middle East has witnessed several attempts at alliance building over the past century: the Arab League’s Joint Defense Council, the Baghdad Pact, and finally the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

GCC collective defense of the Arabian Peninsula resulted following the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War. All GCC member countries share similar political, religious and cultural identities, but do have differing foreign policies, with Qatar having the most divergent approach.

President Trump and others have pushed for an “Arab NATO” to counter terrorism and Iranian influence, which would enhance of the effectiveness of the GCC, principally by mandating unified action by all members in certain cases of outside aggression. An Arab NATO, with US support, could also provide troops in majority-Sunni-populated, de-escalation zones in Syria and help keep America involved regionally against Iran.

Unfortunately, Qatar has recently posed threats to GCC alliance coherence through its support for terrorism, its meddling in the internal affairs of neighboring states, and its use of Al Jazeera to attack its opponents; it has also maintained unhealthy relations with Hezbollah and openly supported Hamas. As a result of these actions, which angered its fellow GCC members, nine nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have broken off diplomatic ties with it.

The GCC and any future Arab NATO benefit from a cooperative Qatar, so we must balance making Qatar compliant with ensuring GCC-wide defense cooperation. Mediation by Kuwait or the US should develop a way to constrain Al Jazeera and get Doha to stop its support of Iran; ensuring Doha stops supporting Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood, whether directly or indirectly, is also crucial to all future regional stability and GCC coherence.

Today, the region is at a critical junction. Iran, terror groups, sectarian militias in Yemen and the raging war in Syria pose existential challenges to the GCC, which needs unity more than ever. Qatar is not enhancing its power by undermining GCC security; it should realize that its security is impossible without collective Gulf security.

Alliances can succeed where unilateral action often fails, but managing them also poses difficult challenges. The UAE irrevocably shares common interests with all GCC countries; its wise firmness with Qatar illustrates how both carrots and sticks are needed in managing international relations: skills all strategic leaders will need in the decades to come.

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