News

2017-08-10

Strategic Requirements: Balancing Short Term Desires with Enduring Interests

By: Dr. John R.Ballard

Former Dean of the National Defense College

Every national strategy requires adaptability and an understanding of regional dynamics to succeed. The ongoing crisis with Qatar shows the adaptability required to maintain effective alliances over the long term. But today, our region stands at a strategic crossroads; balancing short term desires against enduring strategic interests must be a clear choice. In the current case, the consequences if Qatar does not comply with the nine-nation effort aimed at stopping its support of terrorism are far reaching and odious.

The nine nations pressuring Qatar are no longer insisting on 13 specific demands; instead they have now focused only on Qatar’s acceptance of six broad principles, built upon combating terrorism and extremism, denying financing and safe havens to terrorist groups, stopping incitement to hatred, and violence and refraining from interfering in the internal affairs of other countries – all of which are reasonable expectations of any nation. The Nine have provided a minimum requirement; Qatar risks regional stability and its future prosperity if it fails to agree.

Seven other Arab nations support Saudi Arabia and the UAE – thus the Arab world stands firmly against Qatar. The United Kingdom’s foreign secretary stated that Qatar needs to do more to stop the funding of extremist groups. The United States has tried to moderate the crisis, attempting to find a middle ground; Canada also called for de-escalation but expressed concern for Qatar’s funding of terrorism. The French called for a “de-escalation” and seek moderation of the crisis. Only Germany’s foreign minister expressed support for Qatar among Europeans and criticized the severing of ties. Thus, Europe and North America advise Qatar to accept the six principals.

Iran has sent planes filled with fruit and vegetables and promised to continue the supply. Turkey

has also pledged food and water supplies along with a small troop deployment to a new Turkish military base in Qatar. President Erdogan has even termed the isolation of Qatar “inhumane and against Islamic values.” Russia has also called for an end to the current crisis, generally supporting Qatar.

The economic impacts are already clear: Qatar’s debt has been downgraded from AA to AA-; Qatar’s stock market has dropped nearly ten percent. Qatar has resorted to expensive imports from Iran and Oman to circumvent the boycott and some economic experts feel that Qatar could eventually pay “an incommensurate price” for defying its GCC partners. Qatar does not have the infrastructure required to withstand the costs of resistance for a prolonged period. Sadly, Iranian, Turkish and Russian support in the region pose only additional problems. Should Qatar refuse the broad principles and continue support from such countries, regional stability, the foundation of Qatari prosperity, would be fractured.

Regional stability compels unity. Qatar will not advance itself by striking an independent alignment with Iranians, Turks and Russians; it needs to view its security as integral to collective Gulf security. The GCC remains the best instrument for regional peace and prosperity and is the only proven hedge against the uncertainty of the 21st century. The UAE irrevocably shares interests with Qatar but also sees the essentiality of regional unity against today’s complex threats. Qatar must see its enduring interests remain with the Nine. Strategic leaders will cite this crisis in the decades to come as the key moment when the visions of a prosperous future were guaranteed by wisdom.

Comments () Views (2242 ) Print

Send To Friend