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2017-09-07

Strategic Tools: National Strategic Deterrence, Reassurance and Dissuasion

By: Dr. John R.Ballard

Former Dean of the National Defense College

Focusing effort is just as necessary when seeking to maintain regional security as it is when states seek to change the status quo. Today our region faces strategic challenges in Yemen, Qatar, Iraq and Syria and unrest in other parts of the region. Solutions to these challenges will require leaders to focus national power to deter potential aggression and dissuade other harmful actions at the strategic level. Thus, strategic deterrence, reassurance and dissuasion all merit greater understanding among security professionals.

As historian Michael Howard has described it: “The object of deterrence is to persuade an adversary that the costs to him of seeking a military solution to his political problems will far outweigh the benefits. The object of reassurance is to persuade one’s own people, and those of one’s allies, that the benefits of military action, or preparation for it, will outweigh the costs.”

Deterrence requires detailed knowledge of the society and leadership that one seeks to influence. Today deterrence has developed beyond its original application – the use of nuclear weapons – to include the coordination of all national capabilities, presence operations, regional cooperation, diplomatic, informational, and economic instruments of power. Dissuasion attempts to convince a potential adversary not to choose an undesirable path, including acquiring or enhancing threatening capabilities. Deterrence, reassurance and dissuasion are all focused on influencing the decisions of other national leaders.

Examples of effective deterrent actions ongoing in the region include operating with friendly naval forces to prevent/dissuade piracy in the Gulf of Aden (presence operations), the Peninsula Shield Force (regional cooperation), ballistic missile defenses, diplomatic demarches, and banning export goods from states supporting illegal activities or terrorism. These actions are designed to affect the minds of the leaders of other states that could pose a threat to us or our allies. Clarity and credibility of messages in the mind of the leader are essential to the effective use of strategic deterrence, reassurance and dissuasion.

Deterrence is not new and has been evolving for some time, particularly as it applies to non-state actors and terrorists. It has proven less effective against non-state actors than against traditional states. And, even when deterrence works, it does have its own risks. If used incoherently, some deterrent actions could strike fear in a potential opponent and stimulate them to attack when they normally would not. And, sometimes, deterrence can delay or mute more effective, forceful responses when time is crucially important. Adjusting deterrence effects to meet multiple potential opponents, actions, and situations, can be extremely complex and can cause confusion among intended audiences, particularly in a region such as the Gulf, but over the long term, the effective use of deterrence will reinforce stability and minimize risk.

With the crisis in Yemen ongoing and coalition operations likely elsewhere, the UAE faces multiple potentially conflicting requirements that could pull our national effort in different directions, so focusing our national deterrence, reassurance and dissuasion efforts on enduring national objectives will require constant attention. But effective deterrence, reassurance and dissuasion can help demonstrate resolve and maintain regional norms and can succeed where physical/military action may be too risky. Effectively developing coherent national deterrence postures and reassurance and dissuasion efforts will be challenging but will also greatly increase the security of the UAE as the nation confronts multiple threats in an uncertain world.

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