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2022-10-01
Hydrogen Can Steer Aviation on Green Path
This article about Hydrogen as future fuel source is a continuation of our September issue article on Sustainable Aviation fuels
Hydrogen is a clean fuel that, when consumed in a fuel cell, produces only water. It can be produced from a variety of domestic resources, such as natural gas, nuclear power, biomass, and renewable power like solar and wind. These qualities make it an attractive fuel option for transportation and electricity generation applications. It can be used in cars, in houses, for portable power, aviation sector and in many more applications.
Hydrogen has a central role in helping the world reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Complementing other decarbonisation technologies like renewable power, biofuels, or energy efficiency improvements, clean hydrogen (both renewable and low carbon) offers the only long-term, scalable, and cost-effective option for deep decarbonisation in sectors such as maritime and aviation.
From now through 2050, hydrogen can avoid 80 gigatonnes (GT) of cumulative CO2 emissions. With annual abatement potential of 7 GT in 2050, the lightest element can contribute 20 per cent of the total abatement needed in 2050. This requires the use of 660 million metric tonnes (MT) of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen in 2050, equivalent to 22 per cent of global final energy demand.
The production of hydrogen from electricity will connect and reshape current power, gas, chemicals, and fuel markets.
In terms of end uses, hydrogen is critical for decarbonising industry (e.g., as feedstock for steel and fertilisers), long-range ground mobility (e.g., as fuel in heavy-duty trucks, coaches, long-range passenger vehicles, and trains), international travel (e.g., to produce synthetic fuels for maritime vessels and aviation), heating applications (e.g., as high-grade industrial heat), and power generation (e.g., as dispatchable power generation and backup power).
Largest Markets
China, followed by Europe and North America, will be the largest hydrogen markets in 2050, together accounting for about 60 per cent of global demand. Fulfilling this decarbonisation role will require a large scale-up of clean hydrogen production in the coming decades.
Supplying 660 MT to end-uses will require 3 to 4 terawatts (TW) of electrolysis capacity and about 4.5 to 6.5 TW of renewable generation capacity, as well as 140 to 280 MT of reforming capacity for low carbon hydrogen production and associated infrastructure to store about 1 to 2.5 GT of CO2 a year.
In such a supply scenario, renewable energy for hydrogen will account for roughly 15 per cent to 25 per cent of the 27 TW of total new renewable energy required by 2050 to reach net zero — a 10x increase over the 2.8 TW installed today.
Need for Commitment
Setting the energy system on a trajectory to net-zero requires firm commitment and rapid acceleration. The deployment of 75 MT clean hydrogen is needed by 2030 — an ambitious, yet achievable target. This supply of clean hydrogen can replace 25 MT of grey hydrogen in ammonia, methanol, and refining; 50 billion litres of diesel in ground mobility; and 60 MT of coal used for steel production.
Early growth in clean hydrogen deployment will centre on Europe, Japan, and Korea, which will account for about 30 per cent of new clean demand. China and North America — significantly larger hydrogen markets today — will follow closely with about 20 per cent of demand for clean hydrogen each.
The deployment of clean hydrogen will not happen without the right regulatory framework — both governments and businesses need to act. Requirements include suitable policies such as mandates and robust carbon pricing, the development of large-scale infrastructure, and targeted support and de-risking of large initial investments.
These investments will pay off. Scaling hydrogen is the key to reducing costs through economies of scale, making hydrogen available to end-users through the necessary infrastructure, and ultimately making it a competitive, available, cost-efficient decarbonisation vector.
Strong Momentum
The hydrogen industry has shown strong momentum around the globe, with more than 520 projects announced in 2021, up 100 per cent compared to 2020. These announced projects will translate into 18 MT of clean hydrogen supply (accounting for US$ 95 billion) as well as infrastructure (US$ 20 billion) and end-uses (US$45 billion). Considering investments to achieve government targets and support equipment value chains, the total sum of estimated spending will grow to more than US$ 600 billion by 2030.
Although the pipeline of projects is strong, a significant gap to the net zero scenario remains, and the right regulatory framework is required to turn projects from concepts into actual investments. Out of the currently announced direct investments, only US$ 20 billion (13 per cent) have passed the final investment decision (FID) so far, with another US$ 64 billion (40 per cent) in the feasibility or front-end engineering and design (FEED) stage.
This means many proposals are on the table awaiting the right regulatory framework to unlock demand and investments.
In terms of additional investments, the currently announced projects (US$ 160 billion) cover nearly 25 per cent of the required US$ 700 billion to achieve the deployment laid out in this report, out of which US$ 300 billion is required for hydrogen production, US$ 200 billion for infrastructure, and US$200 billion for hydrogen end-uses.
Tremendous Acceleration
A tremendous acceleration has taken place over the past year with strong growth in the number of projects being launched, demonstrating hydrogen’s many potential uses are recognised in the industry. However, a five-fold increase in announcements is required to enable full abatement potential of hydrogen.
Hydrogen’s full potential can only be realised if action is taken across three fronts to: stimulate demand, enable access through infrastructure, and create scale to bring down costs and close the economic gap of hydrogen decarbonisation solutions versus conventional alternatives.
Energy Tap
Hydrogen also plays a critical role in enabling a higher degree of electrification and a stronger penetration of renewable power generation to build decarbonised energy systems. It can facilitate the transport of clean energy over long distances via pipelines and shipping, thus unlocking previously untapped “stranded” renewables resources. It can reshape current chemicals, fuels, and metal production sectors and connect them with the power industry. This systemic role of hydrogen makes possible a holistic and hence faster and cost-effective decarbonisation across sectors and regions.
Hydrogen can store large amounts of energy over long periods to be tapped as required, for example, in underground salt caverns. Such uses might include providing heating during unexpectedly cold winters or ensuring steady hydrogen supply at industrial plants. If pipelines are available, hydrogen can be stored through “line packing,” i.e., increasing the pressure in the pipelines to store a higher volume of hydrogen and strengthen the security of the energy supply.
Hydrogen provides energy system resiliency in multiple ways. It enables continuous grid operation by balancing peaks and troughs in demand, storing power when excess low-cost energy is available and releasing it when needed.
Hydrogen can move clean energy from areas with attractive energy resources to areas with less attractive domestic resources, enabling both regional and global energy transmission. Within a region, pipelines and trucks can distribute hydrogen.
Trucks with compressed or liquid hydrogen can cost-competitively supply distributed end-users such as refuelling stations, remote generators, construction sites, or smaller industrial customers. For longer distances, hydrogen can be shipped. It can connect low-cost hydrogen production regions like Australia, Latin America, and the Middle East to demand centres such as Europe, the Western US, Japan, and Korea.
Maritime and aviation, which generate about four per cent of global emissions, are both highpower, long-range end-uses and will partly rely on hydrogen-based fuels to decarbonise cost-efficiently. Liquid hydrogen or hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia, methanol, or e-methane are the most promising clean fuels for full decarbonisation of the maritime sector.
Aviation will become a major consumer of synthetic fuels (e-kerosene), based on hydrogen combined with CO2 from biogenic sources or directly captured from the air, as well as liquid hydrogen for short range intracontinental flights. These two end-uses will account for 110 MT of hydrogen demand, abating 13 GT of CO2 through 2050.
Across Geographies
In 2050, hydrogen will be a major part of energy markets across geographies, enabling some countries to exploit their natural resources and reduce their reliance on imported oil and gas while decarbonising various sectors. Australia, Latin America, and the Middle East will likely become major exporters.
China, the world’s largest consumer of primary energy, should become the largest single market for clean hydrogen in 2050, with about 200 MT of demand. Europe and North America will follow, accounting for 95 MT of clean hydrogen each.
Europe has significant decarbonisation momentum across industries. In Europe, clean hydrogen demand is expected to be partially supplied by imports and scale-up proportionally earlier than in other geographies.
In North America, the world’s second-largest consumer of energy, hydrogen will play a major role in ensuring a low-carbon domestic energy supply, building on attractive resources for renewable power production as well as low-cost natural gas and abundant carbon storage sites
Japan and Korea will require about 35 MT of hydrogen in 2050, the majority of which will be imported renewable or low-carbon hydrogen.
Other regions like South-East Asia, Oceania, Middle East, and Latin America will account for about 235 MT hydrogen demand in 2050.
While many of these markets have been slower to adopt hydrogen at scale in new end-uses compared with frontrunners such as Europe, Japan, and Korea, they have already seen activity on this front.
Early growth in hydrogen will likely centre around Europe, Japan, and Korea. Combined, they will represent 20 per cent of total hydrogen demand in 2030. China and North America, together representing nearly half of grey hydrogen demand today, will follow closely.
Limited Alternatives
Hydrogen for fuelling aircraft will contribute about four MT of clean hydrogen demand in 2030. The aviation sector is challenging to decarbonise given the limited range of alternatives — it requires either biofuels (which are finite) or hydrogen-based fuels, with fewer potential pathways than maritime.
Air travel can be decarbonised with either pure liquid or high-pressure gaseous hydrogen or synthetic kerosene (e-kerosene) from clean hydrogen and CO2 from biogenic sources or directly captured from the air. Initial decarbonisation will likely be biofuel-based. However, hydrogen will be required to reach full decarbonisation, and specific blending targets for hydrogen-based fuels are under discussion, such as a 0.7 per cent target for renewable fuels of non-biological origin for aviation in Europe.
To be on the path to a decarbonised aviation sector, the initial adoption of hydrogen-based fuels should be about 1 per cent globally in 2030.
To decarbonise medium and long-range flights, e-kerosene is crucial and the only viable pathway. This requires limited amendments to the aircraft as the clean fuel has the same molecular structure as fossil fuel-based kerosene and can be “dropped in” in the fuel mix.
Pure hydrogen, likely in the form of liquid or potentially high-pressure gas, is a viable route to decarbonise shorter duration, smaller aircraft that conduct short-range, regional intra-continental flights. Pure hydrogen in liquid form will likely be the predominant pathway due to its higher energy density relative to compressed gas. Two main propulsion alternatives for pure hydrogen aircraft exist, fuel cells or hydrogen turbines, where the former is more efficient, and the latter allows for higher power required to lift the aircraft off the ground. The two technologies can be combined in one aircraft.
The economics are challenging, and e-kerosene requires carbon prices above US$ 200 a tonne to outcompete conventional kerosene.
Higher fuel costs largely drive the poor economics, with the cost of the hydrogen feedstock and clean carbon having the biggest impact. Within direct hydrogen use, setting up the required infrastructure and developing new aircraft designs are important drivers.
E-kerosene requires limited infrastructure investments due to its identical properties compared with conventional kerosene. Supply routes may need to be rerouted due to new concentrations of production capacity. However, the use of compressed or liquid hydrogen will require dedicated infrastructure.
Zero Emission Technology
Hydrogen is one of the most promising zero-emission technologies to reduce aviation’s climate impact.
It is a high-potential technology with a specific energy-per-unit mass that is three times higher than traditional jet fuel. If generated from renewable energy through electrolysis, it emits no CO2, thereby enabling renewable energy to potentially power large aircraft over long distances but without the undesirable by-product of CO2 emissions.
In aviation, there are two primary uses for hydrogen:
Hydrogen can be combusted through modified gas-turbine engines or converted into electrical power that complements the gas turbine via fuel cells. The combination of both creates a highly efficient hybrid-electric propulsion chain powered entirely by hydrogen.
Hydrogen can be used to create e-fuels, which are generated exclusively through renewable energy. Hydrogen produced using renewable electricity is combined with carbon dioxide to form a carbon fuel with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Research Projects
Raytheon Technologies has been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy for two research and development projects to test the use of hydrogen and ammonia as effective, zero-carbon options for electricity generation.
Under the first project, Raytheon Technologies will validate the capacity to operate Mitsubishi Power Aero’s FT4000 gas turbine unit using hydrogen and hydrogen blends as fuel sources.
Raytheon Technologies will work with the University of Connecticut School of Engineering on the second Energy Department project to focus on the use of ammonia as a zero-carbon fuel for power-generating turbines.
In February 21, 2022, Pratt & Whitney had been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) to develop novel, high-efficiency hydrogen-fuelled propulsion technology for commercial aviation, as part of DoE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E).
Aesthetical Similarity
Hydrogen planes would be similar aesthetically to traditional planes, albeit with a slightly longer length needed. Smaller planes would likely use propellers, with hydrogen-powered fuel cells providing electric propulsion to turn the propellers. Bigger planes could burn hydrogen to power jet engines.
The hydrogen-powered aviation report, released on June 22, 2021 said that hydrogen could feasibly be used by 2035 to power a commercial passenger aircraft on a flight of up to 3,000 kilometres. By 2040 or beyond, a medium-range flight of up to 7,000 kilometres should be possible, leaving just long-range flights for traditional aviation.
Successful Attempts
Progress has been made in developing the underlying technology of hydrogen planes. In 2008, Boeing flew the world’s first hydrogen-powered plane from an airfield near Madrid, Spain, a single-seater vehicle that proved the technology was possible. In 2016, the first four-seater hydrogen plane, built in Germany by the German aeronautical research agency (DLR), the University of Ulm and a company called H2FLY, lifted off from Stuttgart Airport.
Four Components
Hydrogen planes essentially have four major components — a storage system to safely store liquid hydrogen, fuel cells to convert hydrogen to electricity, a device to control the power of the cells, and a motor to turn a propeller. In order to make full commercial planes, all of these four areas must be developed sufficiently.
In Spain, a project called Heaven is working on integrating these components into an experimental plane. It is developing a powertrain to turn the propellers at high speed using electric power, along with similar liquid hydrogen storage systems to those that have been used in cars.
“This will be the first liquid hydrogen storage system (for planes), which will be connected with a fuel cell and an electric motor, and then flown in a flight test,” said Dr Josef Kallo from the w. “At the end of this year, we will go into flight.”
The powertrain developed by the project turns hydrogen into torque to turn the propeller. It is highly efficient and quiet to run, producing about the same amount of noise as an internal combustion engine in a car — meaning passengers should have a pleasant flight.
Green Aviation
Efforts are underway to develop green hydrogen by using an electric current from a renewable source to convert water into oxygen and hydrogen, and reduce emissions in its production. If that is possible, along with no emissions from the planes themselves, aviation could become a truly green form of travel.
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