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2018-02-01

The Nuclear Triad: Russian Perspectives

The agreement between the United States and Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (the New START Treaty) entered into force on February 5, 2011.

The US and Russia must meet the Treaty’s central limits on strategic arms by February 5, 2018. Each Party has the flexibility to determine the structure of its strategic forces within a ten-year limit, unless superseded by a subsequent agreement limiting the extension of the Treaty to a period of five years.

The aggregate limits:

• 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments;

• 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, SLBMs and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (each heavy bomber is counted as one warhead);

• 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.

Nation Shield has previously covered the changes required for the US to create a nuclear force strong enough to deter any enemies and retain military supremacy, despite New START’s limitations. Both the US and Russia have composed their triads along the same lines to include the three components: the land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), strategic bombers and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

It is thus essential to examine the Russian inventories also affected by New START.

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

New START explicitly lists five types of Russian land-based ballistic missiles considered operational under the treaty: RS-12M (also known as SS-25 or Topol), RS-12M2 (SS-27 or Topol-M), RS-18 (SS-19 or UR-100NUTTH), RS-20 (SS-18 or R-36M2) and RS-24 (Yars).

According to various sources, Russia has 312 deployed ICBMs although the sum of operational warheads is debatable. Some missiles are known to carry a single warhead (SS-25 Topol and SS-27 Topol-M), while the SS-19 and the SS-18 carry six and 10 respectively. The RS-24 YARS is deployed with six warheads each.

The Russian Federation has a substantial number of non-deployed ICBM launchers, including more than 120 silos for the SS-18 and SS-19 preserved for future deployment of new ICBMs. It has about 90 road-mobile ICBMs at conversion and elimination facilities, with approximately 45 silos and mobile launchers used for training or located at test ranges.

RS-12M/Topol

The RS-12M Topol is an intercontinental-range, road-mobile, solid propellant ballistic missile system. It was nominally developed as an updated RS-12 Mod 2, due to restrictions on the number of ‘new’ missiles developed under the START II treaty. The RS-12M delivers a payload of 1,000 kg with a single warhead up to a range of 11,000 km, using a Post-Boost Vehicle (PBV) system to grant higher accuracy to its single warhead.

The system uses a digital computer controlled inertial navigation system providing an accuracy of 900 m CEP, cold-launched from a canister on a wheeled Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) vehicle. The SS-25 is undergoing a phased retirement in Russia’s nuclear modernization program. It will be replaced by the SS-27 “Topol-M” ICBM and will likely be completely out of service within the 2022 timeframe.

RS-12M1 (Topol-M)/SS-27

In 1997, Russia began deploying an updated version of the SS-25, the RS-12M1(Topol-M)/SS-27. The RS-12M1 carries a single 500 kT nuclear warhead with a range of 10,500 km. The RS-12M1 is a ground-based road-mobile ICBM, housed and launched from an underground silo or Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) vehicle. The navigation system is directed by an onboard GLONASS (Russian GPS) receiver, increasing the accuracy of the missile and minimizing the burn-time of the missile’s engine to help avoid detection by missile defense systems.

The missile also carries countermeasures and targeting decoys, capable of evasive maneuvers during the terminal phase to avoid missile interceptors. The missile is also protected from radiation and electromagnetic interference (or electromagnetic pulse), with a short boost phase to reduce vulnerability to laser weapon systems.

RS-18 (SS-19 or UR-100NUTTH)

The RS-18 has three deployed configurations, named mods 1-3. The mod 1 has been designed to carry up to six MIRVs with 60 launchers deployed by the end of the year. The ignition system of the SS-19 is hot-launched, with ignition of the main engine occurring while the missile is still in the silo.

The RS-18 mod 2 differs in being configured to carry only a single warhead with a yield of 2.5-5 MT and will be removed from service between 2015-2020. The mod 3 is an improved version of the mod 1 with upgraded engines and command-and-control modifications.

In 2008, Russia tested the RS-18/SS-19 for reliability to determine if the weapon is to remain a member of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. In fact, the SS-19 performed capably, meaning the missile could remain operational at least until the year 2031.

RS-20 (SS-18 or R-36M2)

The RS-20, or SS-18 Satan as it is popularly known, is an intercontinental-range; silo-based, liquid propellant ballistic missile initially developed by the Soviet Union and now the Russian Federation. A total of six versions have existed since the program’s inception, but only the Mod 6 is still operationally deployed.

The original SS-18 (Mods 1/2/3) entered development in 1960s as a leaner and more advanced replacement for the SS-9. The Mod 5 and Mod 6 entered service in 1988 but, as of April 2017, only 46 Mod 6 remain operational anticipating the SS-X-30’s (RS-28 Sarmat) imminent entry into service.

The Mod 6 has 10 MIRV warheads housed on two tiers, with a 500-750 kT yield, an accuracy of 500 m CEP and range of 11,000 km. The Mod 6 has improved decoys, penetration aids and protection against nuclear warhead effects, so improving increased MIRV coverage alongside rapid re-targeting capability.

R-36M2

R-36M missiles are classified as “heavies”, being extremely large and capable, giving Russia the ability to establish a formidable strategic nuclear deterrent. The R-36M2 has retained many features from the R-36MUTTH. Throughout much of the late 20th century, the R-36M and variants were at the center of arms control talks between the USSR and United States, ultimately capping the total number of R-36Ms constructed and deployed.

RS-24 Yars

As the newest ICBM of Russia, the RS-24 Yars is also known the ‘Topol’-MR, being an improved version using the same 16x16 wheeled chassis and resembling the Topol-M but with improved, heavier missiles. It is a Russian MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) named the SS-29 in the West and equipped with thermonuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The START Treaty prohibited increased number of warheads attributed to ICBMs, so Russia claimed that the RS-24 was a completely new ICBM to justify the SS-29 instead of SS-27 Mod 2 designation. The solid-fuel RS-24 YARS ICBM is equipped with a nuclear warhead and developed both as a road-mobile and silo-based system using the same missile.

The YARS was first tested in 2007 to replace the previous Topol-M in the Russian Strategic Missile Forces in 2010 and become the mainstay of the ground-based component of Russian nuclear triad. As of 2016, Russian Strategic Missile Forces deployed 63 mobile and 10 silo-based YARS ICBMs fielded alongside the Topol-M systems on a 50/50 basis.

Designed to evade missile defense systems, this missile maneuvers during the flight to carry both active and passive decoys. The YARS has at least a 60-65% chance to penetrate defense and, with a CEP of 150-200 m, is slightly more accurate than the Topol-M.

The road mobile YARS TEL is based on the Belarusian MZKT-79221 16x16 heavy high mobility chassis, specially designed for the Topol-M intercontinental missile, The mobile launcher has autonomy on roads of 500 km, allowing the vehicle to operate undetected in an area equivalent to a small European country. Hence, road mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles are harder to detect, meaning the YARS has a high probability of surviving first strike once the country has been attacked. On high alert, the Yars missiles can leave their bases and operate in remote forest areas to increase their survivability.

Russian SLBMs

The new year sees the Russian ballistic missile submarine fleet now include four types of submarine due to be equipped with four types of SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles). The following missiles will thus be declared operational under New START: the Stantsia R-29RMU1 missile, Stantsia R-29KU-02 missile, Sineva R-29RMU2 missile and the Lainer R-29RMU2.1 missile.

The Stantsia R-29RMU1

Five years of R&D conducted over 1996-2001 were responsible for the creation of a middle-power warhead of increased safety based on the R-39UTTKh missile warhead. Thanks to these developments, the R-29RMU1’s warhead has increased explosion safety and improved accuracy, with signaling and velocity characteristics now equivalent to those of their best foreign counterparts.

The state flight tests completed in July 2001 included three launches of the missiles with new warhead in different telemetry configurations. Since then, the basic characteristics of the missile and warhead complex have been demonstrated to meet the imposed requirements.

Stantsia R-29KU-02 missile

Under a framework of research and development seeking to extend the R-29RKU-01’s operation time, the Stantsia-2 missile has been re-equipped with warheads boasting higher effectiveness and safety, while making minimum modifications in the missile and complex systems (referred to the R-29RKU-02 Stantsia-2 upon reequipment).

The main accomplishment of the Stantsia-2 research and development program was validated by flight tests attesting to the prolongation of missile operation times. Meanwhile, the success of the Pakt R&D program of 2015–2017 illustrates the increased operation time of the North-East submarine alignments that constitute the 667BDR project.

Sineva R-29RMU2 missile

In 1999, Russia resumed production of modified ‘Sineva’ missiles intended to be deployed on Project 667BDRM submarines. Launch tests were completed in June 2004 and accepted for service in July 2007.

The R-29RMU2 missile carries middle-power warheads and penetration aids, while having the highest power-and-mass perfection among sea- and ground-based strategic missiles. It also boasts a series of new features, including enlarged circular and arbitrary areas for deployment of warheads and flat trajectories for all firing ranges in astro-inertial and astro-radio-inertial modes of the BCS operation (if corrected with the GLONASS satellite system).

The missile potential and high payload capabilities of the Sineva were demonstrated in 2008, when it hit a firing site of more than 1,500 km distance in Pacific Ocean waters.

Lainer R-29RMU2.1 missile

Lainer missiles can be equipped with 10 warheads of low-power class with penetration aids, or 8 warheads of the same power class with advanced penetration aids, or 4 warheads of middle-power class with penetration aids. These missiles can carry a mixed complete set of warheads of different power classes. In addition, an updated Arbat-U2.1 shipborne digital computer system drives the operation of any combination of missiles and their combat load aboard the 667BDRM submarine.

The Sineva R-29RMU2 and Lainer R-29RMU2.1 missiles have also been proven superior to other modern sea-based missiles. In terms of combat equipment, under the START-3 Treaty, Sineva and Lainer missiles are no longer inferior to the American Trident-2 missile as the best comparable foreign model. Moreover, these missiles have made Northwest alignment available to submarines of the 667BDRM project possible up until the year 2030.

Heavy bombers

Russia currently has Tu-95MC and Tu160 heavy bombers subject to the START limitations. These aircraft can carry long-range nuclear air-launched cruise missiles as well as gravity bombs.

Tupolev Tu-160

The newly built Tupolev Tu-160 long-range heavy strategic bomber is the world’s largest operational bomber, designated as Blackjack by NATO. Aircraft Tu-160 is developed on a low faired integral scheme with variable swept back wing, tricycle landing gear, all-moving stabilizer and fin. Wing flap system includes slats, double-slotted flaps, for roll guidance spoilers and drooped ailerons are applied. Four engines are installed in pairs in nacelles at the bottom of the fuselage. TA-12 APU is used as a stand-alone power unit.

Two compartments of useful load are situated in sequence (one by one). The basic airframe materials are titanium, heat-treated aluminum alloys, steel alloys and composite materials. The aircraft is equipped with a lavatory, a kitchen, sleeping accommodations. The aircraft is equipped with a refill system receiver “hose-cone” type. Airframe components such as wings and engine compartments were put into serial production at Voronezh aircraft factory, the fins and air scoops were produced at Irkutsk aircraft factory, landing gear was developed at Kuibyshev Assembly Plant, the fuselage center section and components of half wing pivot at the Kazan aviation plant.

In the wing structure single bloc cells were widely used from monolithic panels and profiles 20 m long. Fuselage was assembled from large sheets, extrusions and forgings with the use of special riveting. Control units and the mechanization of the wing (stabilizer fin, flaperons, flaps, etc.) were made with extensive use of composite and metal bonded panels with honeycomb core. The aircraft is the largest in the history of military aviation supersonic aircraft and the aircraft with variable geometry wings, as well as the heaviest combat aircraft in the world with the largest among the bombers maximum takeoff weight.

Tu-95MC

Over 500 Tu-95s have rolled off the assembly line since entering service in 1956, expected to serve Russia’s Aerospace Forces until at least 2040. Its maritime patrol version is designated Tu-142, with a Tu-114 passenger airliner derivative. Later a strategic missile carrier Tu-95МС - cruise missile carrier was developed on the basis of modification Tu-142М.

Having a NATO reporting name of “Bear”, the Tupolev Tu-95 is a large, four-engine turboprop-powered strategic bomber and missile platform of identical age and service expectation. Aircraft Tu-95 is a normal aerodynamic scheme with high-lying cantilevered three-spar wing. This aerodynamic design provides high aerodynamic efficiency at high speed flight.

Aircraft performance improvement is also achieved by a high aspect ratio wing, corresponding to the angle of its sweep and a set of profiles along the span. Power plant of Tu-95 consists of four turboprop engines НК-12MП with coaxial four-blade propellers АВ-60К. Fuel is placed in the central fuselage tank, two central and four integral fuel tanks in the wing. Fueling is centralized. There is a refueling envelope of air refueling.

NATO fighters are often sent to intercept Tu-95s as they often perform their missions along the periphery of NATO airspace in close proximity to each other. During the Russian Stability 2008 military exercise, Tu-95MS aircraft fired live air-launched cruise missiles for the first time since 1984.

Currently aircraft Tu-95МС is one of the essential elements of the Russian strategic aviation forces. Tu-95МС has considerable potential in modernization that is more effective missile weapons and new equipment.

Modernisation program

Russia’s major strategic modernization program involves production of new ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and ballistic missile submarines. The aim is to replace existing missiles and submarines, many of which are well past their retirement dates.

Under the assumption that New START limits remain in place and the United States will proceed with modernization of its own strategic forces to accelerate in the 2020s, the Russian strategic modernization program presents little significant concern. The US and Russia are implementing the Treaty without reported problems and both are interested in extending New START or replacing it with a roughly comparable agreement in 2021, when the treaty expires. However, the two sides must reconcile their goals to make progress toward deeper reductions.

Reference Photo/Text:

www.dtic.mil

www.beoing.com

www.northropgrumman.com

www.flicker.com

www.nuclearforces.org

www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org

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